jnj

Before the bell: Futures higher on SBUX, YHOO, ahead of inventory report

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) shares are trading 4.2% higher in premarket action after the bank, seeking to calm investors, said it expects a profit in its second quarter.

While AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) unveiled its pricing strategy for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s 3G iPhone to go on sale July 11 with a $199 and $299 (with contract) price points as expected, Canadians are outraged over Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE: RCI)'s 3G iPhone rates and have created an online petition that collected over 19,000 signatures already.

AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) rose in Europe and is rising over 2.7% in premarket trading after winning a court case against Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) and the Sandoz unit of Novartis (NYSE: NVS) over patents on its Seroquel schizophrenia drug.

A day after car sales were seen as "not as bad as expected," comes Merrill Lynch and downgrades General Motors (NYSE: GM). Shares are down over 3% in premarket trading.

Novartis (NYSE: NVS) shares are trading higher today after an analyst at BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to "Neutral" from "Underperform," saying that Novartis was the "surprise winner" at a recent oncology conference. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVS.

After hitting a one-year high of $59.17 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.19 in April. NVS opened this morning at $53.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $53.06 and a high of $53.83. As of 12:10, NVS is trading at $53.51, up $1.92 (3.7%). The chart for NVS looks neutral but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in four months as long as NVS is above $45 at October expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lubrizol, BioMarin Pharmaceutical and Novartis were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of Lubrizol (NYSE:LZ) to Hold from Buy as they expect persistent raw material cost pressures to limit upside over the next few quarters. The firm lowered their target price to $60 from $65.
  
• Citigroup cut BioMarin (NASDAQ:BMRN) to Hold from Buy after their survey indicated an upside surprise from the Kuvan launch is unlikely. The firm lowered their target price to $37 from $42.
  
• HSBC downgraded shares of Novartis (NYSE:NVS) to Underweight from Neutral following the company's stake in Alcon (NYSE:ACL) as they believe it dilutes the company's return on assets.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman removed Waste Management (NYSE:WMI) from its Conviction Buy List.
  
• Thomas Weisel downgraded Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC) to Market Weight from Overweight.
  
• Dreamworks Animation (NYSE:DWA) was lowered at UBS to Sell from Neutral.
  
• JP Morgan downgraded Martha Stewart (NYSE:MSO) to Neutral from Overweight.

Retire Rich: Best Stocks to Retire On
FORTUNE's trademark long-term portfolio can help put you on the road to a secure future. They include Abbott Labs, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Cisco, 3M, Walgreen, Cascade, Novaratis and Vodafone to name a few of the 40 stocks on FORTUNE's list.
Fortune 40: Best stocks to retire on - FORTUNE

Shoppers Beware: Products Shrink, But Prices Remain the Same
There's a reason why the tub of ice cream you bought last week looks a tad smaller than ones you bought last summer. It is. Many major ice cream makers, hit by higher dairy costs, have shrunk their standard containers to 1.5 quarts from 1.75 quarts, about 1 cup less. As packaged goods makers' costs rise, they eventually have just two choices: raise prices or put less stuff in the package. While most are trying a price boost first, a growing number are shrinking the contents of their packages -- from Frito Lay's chips to Dial soap to Dreyer's ice cream. Other shrinking products include Hellmann's mayo down to 30 oz. from 32 oz., Cheerios & Wheaties have shrunk 1.5oz., Bounty papertowels down to 60 from 52 towels and more.
Shoppers beware: Products shrink but prices stay the same - USATODAY.com

Before the bell: Stocks head for lower open, again

Well, with this latest deal, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has all but confirmed what the next iPhone will be. Japanese mobile-phone operator Softbank Corp. said Wednesday that it reached an agreement with Apple to sell its iPhones by the end of the year. Japan has 103 million sophisticated mobile users, already paying up for high-tech phones. So far, speculation was that Apple will close a deal with NTT DoCoMo, but Softbanks it is. The phone will likely support 3G networks.

Merrill Lynch cut its price target to $27 from $28 for Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), saying Countrywide Financial's cumulative losses are likely to rise to between $10 billion and $12 billion, causing writedowns for its buyer and being a big EPS drag. It kept its Underperform rating for the stock.

While BofA paid $4 billion for Countrywide, Wachovia (NYSE: WB) paid $25 billion for Golden West Financial, which turned out to be a disastrous acquisition.

Acorda Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ACOR) shares are up 18% on news of positive drug trials.

GM (NYSE: GM) is up over 4% after a positive article in Barrons.

Novartis (NYSE: NVS) is up almost 4% on news that one of it cancer drugs has new applications.

Harris Bank (NYSE: HRS) is up 3% on comments by its CEO that the bank is not for sale.

Wachovia (NYSE: WB) is off over 3% on news that it has fired its CEO.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247walls.com.

RBC downgraded Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) to "sector perform" from "outperform," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports Morgan Stanley downgraded LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) to "equal weight" from "overweight."

Novartis (NYSE: NVS) was started as "overweight" at JPMorgan, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial site also reports that Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) was cut to "hold " at Deutsche Bank.

Almost everyone these days has encountered cancer in one way or another. While the rate of cancer incidence has stabilized to declined since the early 1990s and, with newer and better treatments as well as early detection, cancer death rates have also declined, the war on cancer is still far from won.

It is no surprise, then, that a few days ago, IMS Health (NYSE: RX) -- a provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries -- said that cancer drugs sales will nearly double by the year 2012. Assuming a compound growth rate of 12-15% a year, sales will grow from $48 billion in 2008 to $80 billion by 2012.

The main contributors to growth, according to the study, are an increasing number of patients on chemotherapy, not just in major markets but in emerging markets, too, as well as longer treatment periods for growing numbers of patients. Also fueling growth are the increased use of targeted therapeutic agents, along with first-time innovations coming to the market. Expensive new biotechnology drugs, and the increasing use of combination therapies that contribute to the exploding cost of treatment will also fuel cancer drugs sales growth.

The overall pharmaceutical market grew at a 6.4% pace in 2007, meaning that with its double-digit growth rate, the cancer drug market -- today contributing 17% to global pharmaceutical sales -- will only represent a greater proportion and emphasis. Of course, there will be factors moderating growth, such as drugs losing exclusivity and financial constraints of payers.

Cancer-fighting drugs can reach the market twice as fast as the average medicine, and companies can charge as much as $50,000 for a single course of treatment. It is no surprise then that with more and more drugs coming off patent many pharma companies are turning their attention to cancer. But can it save them?

Novartis (NYSE: NVS) shares are trading higher today after the company announced that its high blood pressure drug Tecturna HCT works twice as well as the previous treatment. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVS.

After hitting a one-year high of $59.17 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.19 in April. NVS opened this morning at $50.96. So far today the stock has hit a low of $50.74 and a high of $51.10. As of 12:10, NVS is trading at $50.95, up 0.82 (1.6%). The chart for NVS looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just two months as long as NVS is above $45 at July expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

NVS hasn't been below $46 at all in the past year and has shown support around $50 recently. This trade could be risky if one of the company's drugs gets into trouble with the FDA, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $46, where it bottomed out about a month ago.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NVS.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lincoln Educational, Sonus Networks and Novartis were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Lehman upgraded Lincoln Educational (NASDAQ: LINC) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on improving student enrollment growth and valuation.
  
• Merriman upgraded Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) to Buy from Neutral on the company's strong AT&T (NYSE: T) outlook and near-term upside potential from Japan. They believe shares can trade towards the $5-$6 range.
  
• Bernstein raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company's diversification position it well to withstand future generic expiries.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Goldman Sachs added Burger King (NYSE: BKC) to its Conviction Buy List.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded Imperial Tobacco (NYSE: ITY) to Outperform from Neutral.
  
• FreightCar America (NASDAQ: RAIL) was upgraded at Jefferies to Buy from Hold.

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

Tylenol is probably the most recognizable brand name for the pain reliever acetaminophen. In addition to being a pain reliever, Tylenol also reduces fevers. It was created in 1955 as Tylenol Elixir for children, and was the first aspirin-free pain reliever. It was initially available only by prescription, but became available without a prescription in 1960.

The product is made and marketed by McNeil Consumer Healthcare, a brand owned by Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Tylenol falls within the Consumer segment of J&J, which had sales of $14.5 billion in 2007. Over-the-counter pharmaceuticals represented $5.1 billion in sales, or 35% of the segment's sales.

Excedrin is a pain reliever that combines acetaminophen, aspirin, and caffeine. (Caffeine is known to enhance the effectiveness of aspirin and acetaminophen.) It's a product of Novartis (NYSE: NVS), a Switzerland-based company that bought the Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) consumer medicine business in 2005. Novartis produces a variety of consumer health care products, with 2007 revenue of $39.8 billion.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Google, Ross Stores and Novartis were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's "impressive" improvements in monetization in Q1, no signs of weakness from the economic downturn and upside potential from display, video and mobile.
  
• Lehman upgraded Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) to Overweight from Equal Weight and believes the company's 2008 guidance of 8-9% sales growth and up to 20% bps in margin expansion will prove conservative.
  
• Morgan Stanley upped Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Overweight from Underweight on valuation and expectations for positive news flow from the company's vaccine division.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• JP Morgan upgraded Bladex to Neutral from Underweight.
• William Blair raised Watsco (NYSE: WSO) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  
• SunTrust (NYSE: STI) was upgraded at Baird to Neutral from Underperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple, Novartis and Infineon were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Morgan Keegan downgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Underperform from Market Perform citing increased evidence of broad-based weakness in consumer technology spending in the U.S. and Europe. Additionally, the firm expects challenges in the company's education vertical due to state and local budget issues, which could lead to decelerating growth over the next 2-3 quarters.
  
• Bear Stearns downgraded Novartis(NYSE: NVS) to Peer Perform from Outperform following the acquisition of Alcon (NYSE: ACL), as they find the deal expensive.
  
• Credit Suisse cut Infineon (NYSE: IFX) to Neutral from Outperform to reflect weakness in the U.S. dollar.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman downgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Zions Bancorp (ZION) to Neutral from Buy.
• Keefe Bruyette cut Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) to Underperform from Market Perform.
  
• Baird downgraded Flowserve (NYSE: FLS) to Neutral from Outperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Brokers and Asset Managers sector, Pacific Sunwear and Metabasis Therapeutics were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded the Brokers and Asset Management sector to Attractive from Neutral as they believe an inflection point has been reached for stocks with minimal credit exposure, or where exposure is marked to market. Goldman expects the problem to shift to regional banks and specialty finance from brokers. As such, Goldman upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) and NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Wachovia upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation, merchandising improvements, operating efficiencies, favorable product mix, and reductions in underperforming categories.
  
• Rodman & Renshaw raised Metabasis (NASDAQ: MBRX) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation given the potential for MB07803.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• HSBC raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Neutral from Underweight.
  
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.

Before the bell: Stocks lower after Alcoa, AMD, ahead of housing data

Nike (NYSE: NKE) unveiled its Olympics 2008 line Monday, its largest effort for the games ever. Nike actually created products in every sport at the games despite not being an official sponsor of the games like its rival Adidas. As for the U.S. team, it will be attired in Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) garb.

If Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was upgraded Monday, today it finds itself on the flip side with a downgrade from Morgan Keegan from Market Perform to Underperform. Ummmm, contrarian is one thing, but I'm not so sure about that one. AAPL shares are down nearly 1.5% in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, according to MarketWatch, Goldman Sachs has upgraded some brokers and asset managers, but is remaining cautious on regional banks, mortgage and specialty finance and REITs. American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and several others all were upgraded to Buy. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and several others were cut to neutral.